In-depth analysis of the photovoltaic backplane industry chain

         As the photovoltaic industry has fully entered the era of parity, the dual-carbon energy transition goal guides new photovoltaic installations to the TW era, and high-quality photovoltaic auxiliary materials are expected to take advantage of parity to open the ceiling.  

        The auxiliary materials needed in the photovoltaic industry chain from the upstream silicon material to the photovoltaic module production process include: crucible, thermal field, diamond wire, silver paste, aluminum paste, film, glass, backplane, aluminum frame, junction box, etc. The components cooperate with the inverters and brackets of the BOS link to form a photovoltaic power station.

        Among them, the photovoltaic backplane is the packaging material on the back of the module, which is located in the outermost layer of the photovoltaic module. It is mainly used to resist the corrosion of the cells, EVA film and other materials in the environment such as humidity and heat, and play a role in weather resistance and insulation protection. To a certain extent, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules is improved. 

        According to data from the Photovoltaic Association, the global new installed capacity in 2020 is about 130GW, and it is expected that the new installed capacity will reach 270GW by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 15.7%. The current market space for photovoltaic backplanes is about 6 billion yuan, and photovoltaic backplanes in 2025 The output value is close to 10 billion yuan, and the CAGR for 2020-2025 is 9%. The industry as a whole has a large room for growth.

        The photovoltaic backplane can make the solar panel work normally for a long time in the harsh environment, and its most basic functions include insulation, water resistance, and weather resistance.

        Photovoltaic backsheets are divided into organic polymer film backsheets and glass backsheets according to their materials. At present, the mainstream products are organic backsheets, and organic backsheets can be divided into traditional organic backsheets and transparent backsheets.

        The composite process is currently the mainstream technology for photovoltaic backplanes. It generally has a three-layer structure (PVDF/PET/PVDF). The outer layer of PVDF fluorine film needs to have good resistance to environmental erosion, and the middle PET base film has good insulation properties. The PVDF fluorine film has good adhesion to the photovoltaic film, and the layer needs to be bonded with an adhesive to prevent the interlayer peeling, so as to ensure the long-term reliability of the module.

        In the early days, DuPont used PVF to make fluorine film for photovoltaic backsheets. Later, Arkema promoted PVDF to the field of photovoltaic backsheets. At present, the mainstream fluorine film materials are PVDF and PVF. 

        According to TaiyangNews statistics, PVDF has risen from 35% in 2016 to 53% in 2020, becoming the largest share of photovoltaic backplane coating materials, which is enough to reflect the performance superiority of PVDF compared to other photovoltaic backplane protective materials.

        Photovoltaic backsheets belong to the asset-light industry. Take composite backsheets as an example. The main raw materials such as PET base film, fluorine materials and adhesives account for 88% of the cost. Therefore, the innovation and use of materials is the industry's leading role in the photovoltaic backsheet industry. Focus on cost reduction.

        The domestic backplane market is dominated by fluorine-containing materials, and the structure and materials have been concentrated from the original diversification to a few mainstream structures (such as double-sided fluorine-containing composite structures), and from the original multinational competition to domestic production. 

        Because traditional foreign backplane companies do not adapt to the fast-decreasing business environment, their profit margins have become thinner and their market share has decreased year by year. Since 2016, foreign companies such as Japan's 3M, Japan's Toray, and Germany's Kenbo have withdrawn from the Chinese backplane market.

        With the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, dozens of photovoltaic backplane companies have emerged in China in recent years, and the total production capacity of domestic backplane companies has fully met the domestic and global market needs. 

        The localization rate of photovoltaic backplanes exceeds 90%, and the industry concentration is relatively high. Only part of the module product bidding specifies the use of imported PVF (DuPont) or PVDF (Arkema) fluorine membrane materials to produce KPK or TPT structure backsheets. Due to higher costs, the demand for imported products will shrink even more.

        In 2020, there will be 130GW of new global photovoltaic installed capacity, of which single-sided single-glass modules account for about 70%, and double-sided double-glass modules account for about 30%.

        Driven by double-sided cells and glass thinning, the proportion of dual-glass modules has continued to increase, and the demand for traditional organic backsheets has almost stagnated. The transparent backsheet has formed a differentiated competition with photovoltaic glass by virtue of its lightweight advantages. 

        According to Saiwu's prediction, the use scenario that can replace glass is lightweight components, which are mainly applied to roofs and ground power stations in some developed countries. The possibility of replacing glass with transparent backplanes is between 20% and 30%.

        The rapid penetration of bifacial modules has led to a slowdown in the demand for traditional backplanes. The market share is expected to decrease to 40% in 2025, and the corresponding demand is only 830 million square meters. The transparent organic backplane is expected to fill the projected due to the lightweight components. The market share in 2025 is 12%, corresponding to the demand of about 250 million square meters. 

        The development of high-end photovoltaic backsheet film products is encouraged among the thin film products that the country’s "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on, and as "carbon neutral" is written into the government work report and the cost of photovoltaic kilowatt-hours continues to fall, photovoltaic power generation will show stronger The application field will continue to expand, and the scale of my country’s photovoltaic market will continue to grow.